Deadly Rain in Texas Was Caused by Forecasting Abilities Shredded by MAGA Ignorance (aka DOGE)

🌪 This Reckoning Was Foretold

This isn’t just a story about weather. It’s a story about what happens when we choose to ignore what the weather is trying to tell us.

In my book Sapience: The Moment Is Now, book one opens with a memory. A young girl named Rain is growing up in what’s left of the American Midwest—specifically Minnesota—after the climate has turned against everything human civilization once took for granted. She’s getting ready to conduct a dangerous hack on one of the Multi overlords who now rule over the fragmented survivors of Earth. But before she acts, she remembers everything that brought the world to this brink:

“While hope of engineering a way out of climate change steadily dwindled, so too did people’s willingness to cooperate with each other. People began more and more to simply fend for themselves. It was a phenomenon happening all over the country. (…)
At some point, which no one can quite remember when, every alliance or agreement the world had ever made to fight climate change was abandoned or forgotten. Countries struggled just to remain sovereign entities. People struggled just to stay alive. Deep down, everyone understood the global fight to combat climate change had always been a piecemeal effort that wouldn’t amount to much. (…)
When it came right down to it, there was nobody to hold anybody accountable. So, in the end, everybody played a role in hurrying along the inevitable fall over the climate cliff.

Really, it wasn’t the climate that needed changing. It was human consciousness…”

— Sapience: The Moment Is Now, p. 16

Life Is Barely Fiction NOW

The excerpt above is fiction — but only barely.

What’s happening to the National Weather Service and NOAA right now in 2025 is the literal, bureaucratic dismantling of humanity’s climate early warning system. What’s happening is the result of choosing fools for leaders. Of valuing spectacle over science. Of cutting and slashing until the very agencies meant to save lives can no longer function — and people start dying in flash floods, hurricanes, and heat domes that were once predictable.

The fireworks are over. The reckoning didn’t even wait… disaster struck on 7/4/25 while Trump partied and danced with Melania to YMCA at the White House both sick with jubilant delight after Trump signed the bill that he had to bullied his MAGA loyalists into passing last week… the biggest tax cut to billionaires the world has ever seen (–“the biggest ever!!!” is Trump language, of course).

While mainstream media continues to fail us, Meidas is doing the kind of reporting we need to know how to navigate this moment in time.

How This Happened

I. What Was Lost — Details on job cuts, offices affected.

Who’s Been Lost at NOAA & NWS — And What It Means

Since Trump’s return to office in early 2025, over 880 NOAA employees (about 7–8% of the workforce)—many of them scientists, engineers, forecasters, hydrologists, radar and satellite technicians—were abruptly terminated, primarily probationary staff, under the new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) order. Source: time.com+8en.wikipedia.org+8washingtonpost.com+8. 

This purge included:

• ~600 positions in the National Weather Service alone. Source: nypost.com+9thedailybeast.com+9texastribune.org+9
• A 25% cut at the Environmental Modeling Center, crippling vital weather model systems. Source: npr.org+2en.wikipedia.org+2washingtonpost.com+2
• Massive layoffs at the National Hurricane Center and the Storm Prediction Center. Source: thedailybeast.com+15washingtonpost.com+15cnn.com+15
• Technicians who kept radars and weather balloons operational were let go—a move described as “we’re screwed” by a former NOAA repair director. Source: washingtonpost.com

Seasoned leaders have walked away, including Jeff Evans, Houston’s longtime meteorologist-in-charge, who retired after 34 years—his departure emblematic of moral distress inside the agency. Source: texastribune.org+1newsweek.com+1.

Weather balloon launches declined, radar systems suffered, and satellite data pipelines were compromised. Even systems translating alerts into Spanish were briefly halted. Source: opb.org+1npr.org+1.

Deeper Dive into Weather Balloons

Weather balloon launches have not completely stopped since the Trump administration's budget cuts, but they have been significantly reduced at several locations across the United States due to staff shortages.

Specifically, the National Weather Service (NWS) has announced:

* Suspension of all radiosonde (weather balloon) launches at three stations: Kotzebue, Alaska; Omaha, Nebraska; and Rapid City, South Dakota.

* Reduction of launches to once per day at an additional six locations: Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming.

* Temporary suspension of launches at Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine, with the intention to resume twice-daily launches when staffing permits. 

These cuts are a direct consequence of reduced staffing at NWS forecast offices, exacerbated by the Trump administration's efforts to shrink the federal workforce, including a federal hiring freeze and layoffs of probationary employees. Meteorologists and experts have expressed concerns that these reductions in weather balloon launches could negatively impact forecast accuracy, particularly for severe weather events. The lost data could also create gaps for future researchers and model developers. 

While some offices have suspended launches entirely, others have reduced them to once per day, and the NWS has emphasized its core mission of providing life-saving forecasts and warnings. They have also taken steps to make balloon launches a higher priority and are working to address staffing gaps. In the interim, other data sources, such as research balloons, commercial aircraft, and satellites, will need to compensate for the reduced balloon launches. 

(See end for sources)

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II. How Forecasting Is Faltering — Data shortages, broken systems.

Six Months In: Cracks Become Chasms

Within months, the impact has been dramatic:

• Vacancy rates spiked to 19% agency-wide, with some local offices missing more than 40% of their staff wired.com+15scientificamerican.com+15time.com+15.
• The National Weather Service scrambled to fill 155 forecast positions, including 76 meteorologists, via emergency reassignments newsweek.com+1washingtonpost.com+1.
• Scientists working on the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)—which had recently improved hurricane intensity forecasts—were cut, leaving hard-earned momentum dangling theguardian.com+10cnn.com+10opb.org+10.
• The Pentagon halted sharing key microwave satellite data at night; the new system isn’t online yet, further weakening hurricane tracking washingtonpost.com.
• Experts warn that reduced capacity in weather modeling and forecasting will cost billions in lost economic protection and, more gravely, lives time.com.

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III. Lives on the Line — Highlight Texas tragedies and the human toll.

Weather-Related Deaths Linked to Undercut Forecasting

Despite valiant continued work, tragic failures have followed:

🔥 April–May Tornado / Severe Storm Season

Forecaster shortages across the South and Midwest meant fewer real-time adjustments during critical moments. While no single death has been officially blamed on forecast limitations, internal sources estimate a 5–10% rise in unanticipated storm damage—a grim reflection of thinning service .

🌊 July 4–5, 2025: Central Texas Flash Floods

• At least 52 people killed, including children at Camp Mystic, when 5–11″ of rain fell in hoursapnews.com+3en.wikipedia.org+3theguardian.com+3.
• Local officials and governors accused the NWS of underestimating rainfall severity—though meteorologists note that the volumes exceeded “1,000‑year event” thresholds, making precise prediction nearly impossibletheguardian.com+13wired.com+13thedailybeast.com+13.
• Still, the staffing and data shortfalls arguably left little room for resilience in forecasting, delaying key alerts and prep vox.com.

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IV. Inside NOAA — Testimonials citing burnout are leading to early retirements, just as MAGA planned.

The Human Toll: Inside NOAA’s Ranks

I have a friend at NOAA who readying for a retirement this November. He is too heartbroken to go on in his work that he is specifically the right expert at the right time needed at NOAA. He is far from alone. From NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, MD, through field offices nationwide:

• Anger, heartbreak, moral injury are widespread as people see their agency publicly undermined .
• Staff are burnt out—taking on double shifts, canceled training, decreased equipment budgets—and hearing DOGE officials override internal protocols .
• The agency’s union laments that this isn’t a trimming—it’s a slow structural dismantling of capability .

In one Reddit post shared among federal employees:

“Some field offices were more than half probationary and could be in critical condition… Supervisors are not being informed… unable to quantify the risks…” reddit.com

V. Time for Reckoning — Call to action: restore staffing, transparency, funding.

Time for Reckoning?

This is not just a staffing story—it’s one about public safety, economic stability, and climate resilience. As you build this companion post to “The Fireworks Are Over. Now Comes the Reckoning,” these themes will resonate:

1. Where the cuts were deepest: NWS offices, modeling centers, hurricane teams, satellite techs.
2. What went wrong: forecasting accuracy dipped, emergency alerts lagged, and tragic predictability unraveled.
3. Who suffered most: families in flash floods; agency employees crushed by moral injury; the public left vulnerable.
4. What’s next: rebuilding trust and capability—through emergency hires, court reversals, and public scrutiny.

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Relevant News on NOAA & Texas Floods

Relevant News on TX Floods:

Weather Ballon sources:

• NOAA Cuts Weather Balloon Launches Due to Staff Shortages After …Mar 25, 2025 — The National Weather Service is reducing the number of weather balloons it launches across the country, an early tangible decrease in services offered in the wa…Inside Climate News
• How Trump’s National Weather Service Cuts Could Cost LivesMay 13, 2025 — Swain and others have concurred. Instead, Spinrad says, the Trump administration has made “easy” cuts such as firing “probationary” employees (those who were ne…Scientific American
• National Weather Service scaling back balloon launches due to cutsMar 26, 2025 — There will be intermittent launch suspensions in Albany, New York and Gray, Maine with all launches suspended in Omaha, Nebraska; Rapid City, South Dakota; and …CBS News
• What we lose when weather balloons don’t fly – Washington PostMay 26, 2025 — John Boris, a National Weather Service meteorologist, is on duty to evaluate the chances the storms will cross Lake Michigan overnight and reach the rolling hil…The Washington Post

🛡️ Wear Your Values & Inspire Others

Does this make you mad?

It makes me mad.

Living in D.C., I’ve met and talked with federal employees who’ve been unjustly fired. I made videos back in February warning what Trump’s, Musk’s, and MAGA’s madness would mean for ordinary Americans. I spoke about the dire effects of slashing the federal workforce — how it would ripple across this country like a tsunami.

But it’s not just one wave.

It’s many waves:

• For each federal agency gutted — countless waves of destruction.
• For Trump’s reckless tariffs — countless waves of destruction.
• For the Trump-Miller crackdown on immigrants (which is really hate and racism masquerading as legal warfare against non-white people) — countless waves of destruction.

These waves crash into every corner of this country. And each one carries the potential for death — not just for the targets of MAGA’s madness (Black, Brown, immigrant, disabled, LGBTQ+, and non-MAGA people) — but for MAGA supporters too.

This is what collapse looks like. Not all at once — but one devastating policy, one cowardly law, one indifferent shrug at a time.

My 3-minute minis — called The Now Scroll (a play on doom-scrolling) — are available on YouTube and TikTok. Go watch. Share them. Be informed. Be ready.

I’ve also created a whole line of Resistance Ready wearables, yard signs, posters, and more — because in the Sapient Survival Guide, one critical resistance strategy is this:

👉 Signal to others who haven’t yet been devoured by the MAGA Mind Virus.

Do not underestimate the power of a simple yard sign.
Do not underestimate what it means to wear your resistance on your sleeve — literally.
Your courage is contagious.

🔗 The ABCs of Democracy Products

These are not just products.

They are signals of sanity in a time of manufactured madness.

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